Initial Long-Term Scenarios for COVID-19's Impact on Aviation and Implications for Climate Policy.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a dramatic impact on aviation in 2020, and the industry's future is uncertain. In this paper, we consider scenarios for recovery and ongoing demand, and discuss the implications of these scenarios for aviation emissions-related policy, including the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Using the Aviation Integrated Model (AIM2015), a global aviation systems model, we project how long-term demand, fleet, and emissions projections might change. Depending on recovery scenario, we project cumulative aviation fuel use to 2050 might be up to 9% below that in scenarios not including the pandemic. The majority of this difference arises from reductions in relative global income levels. Around 40% of modeled scenarios project no offset requirement in either the CORSIA pilot or first phases; however, because of its more stringent emissions baseline (based on reductions from year 2004-2006 CO2, rather than constant year-2019 CO2), the EU ETS is likely to be less affected. However, if no new policies are applied and technology developments follow historical trends, year-2050 global net aviation CO2 is still likely to be well above industry goals, including the goal of carbon-neutral growth from 2019, even when the demand effects of the pandemic are accounted for.

Evaluating the Impact of the Pandemic Crisis on the Aviation Industry.

This paper investigates the intellectual structure of the literature addressing "epidemic/pandemic" and "aviation industry" through a bibliometric approach to the literature from 1991 to 2021. The final count of 856 publications was collected from Web of Science and analyzed by CiteSpace (version 5.8.R1) and VOS Viewer. Visualization tools are used to perform the co-citation, co-occurrence, and thematic-based cluster analysis. The results highlight the most prominent nodes (articles, authors, journals, countries, and institutions) within the literature on "epidemic/pandemic" and "aviation industry." Furthermore, this study conceptualizes and compares the growth of literature before theCOVID-19 pandemic and during the COVID-19 ("hotspot") era. The conclusion is that the aviation industry is an engine for global economics on the road to recovery from COVID-19, in which soft (human) resources can play an integral part.

An Analysis Air Traffic Prediction during a Pandemic

Air transportation during the covid-19 pandemic experienced a very drastic decline. The decrease in the number of passengers was caused by national and international restrictions. The troublesome administration makes passengers discouraged from traveling using Air transportation. Based on the National Statistics Agency, air transportation experienced a decline from early 2020 to 2021. This study focuses on air traffic predictions, namely the number of aircraft passengers during the COVID-19 pandemic at Indonesia's main airports, namely Kuala Namu, Sukarno Hatta, and Juanda airports., Ngurah Rai and Hasanuddin. The method used to predict the number of airplane passengers during a pandemic is the backpropagation algorithm using the Fletcher Reeves method. © 2022 IEEE.

The role of very large passenger aircraft in global air transport - A review and outlook to the year 2050

Aviation history has shown an increase in aircraft size in every generation, culminating in the Airbus A380 with a typical capacity of 450 to 600 seats. However, this trend may have come to a halt, as the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the retirement of very large aircraft. Already before the pandemic, airlines had begun to switch to more efficient, but smaller, twin-engine widebody aircraft like Airbus 350 and Boeing 787, and Airbus and Boeing had ceased the production of their largest aircraft types. As a result, in a post-COVID world, airlines will have to rely on aircraft considerably smaller than previously. In our paper, we analyze the operational history of very large passenger aircraft and discuss the economic challenges operating these aircraft. Furthermore, we provide a short-, medium and long-term view on strategies for airlines to cope with a situation where very large passenger aircraft will not be available any longer. We argue, that in the short term, airlines can react to this situation with revenue management techniques, effectively crowding out passengers with the least willingness to pay. In the medium term, airlines are likely to react with changing network strategies. New aircraft that will become available in the near future will allow airlines to operate ultra-long-haul routes and long-haul routes on airport pairs with lower demand. In the long term, we argue that aircraft manufacturers may have to re-consider their product portfolio, given the long-term growth prospects of aviation, capacity constraints at major airports and a preference of larger aircraft by airlines in their pursuit to reduce unit costs. Hence, despite the current arguments against very large passenger aircraft, a renaissance of this aircraft class might emerge in the next decades. © 2022 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V.